UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane predictions

UFC fan favourite Derrick Lewis will have the hometown advantage as he takes on No. 3 Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title in Houston Saturday night.

Kenai Andrews checks in with his thoughts on the card, accompanied by MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss for some special wagering analysis on the main event.

Editor’s Note: Odds are accurate at time of posting and are subject to change before event. Visit MyBookie for latest information.

UFC 265 FIGHT PASS PRELIMS (6PM ET/3PM PT)

JOHNNY MUNOZ JR. (10-1-0) (310) VS. JAMEY SIMMONS (7-3-0) (+250)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423751977830395907?s=20

Andrews: Both guys lost their debut fights and are looking for the big win. Munoz will. be looking for the submission while Simmons will want to keep the fight standing. I think Munoz eventually drags the fight down to the ground.

Andrews Prediction: Johnny Munoz Jr. via submission

VICTORIA LEONARDO (8-3-0) (-115) VS. MELISSA GATTO (6-0-2) (-115)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423752271825969153?s=20

Andrews: Both fighters like the submission but can Gatto shake off the UFC jitters in her debut fight? I also like Leonardo’s one TKO victory while Gatto has not finished anybody with her striking.

Andrews Prediction: Victoria Leonardo via UD 

MILES JOHNS (11-1-0) (-210) VS. ANDERSON DOS SANTOS (21-8-0) (+170)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423752922630852608?s=20

Andrews: Johns is younger and has fought better competition. If he can keep the fight standing, he should eke out the decision.

Andrews Prediction: Miles Johns via UD

MANEL KAPE (15-6-0) (-200) VS. ODO OSBOURNE (9-3-0, 1NC) (+160)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423753139065339912?s=20

Andrews: Kape missed weight. He has fought better competition but lost while Osbourne rebounded from his debut loss to finish his next fight in 26 seconds. Osbourne finishes the finisher.

Andrews Prediction: Odo Osbourne via TKO

KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ (12-6-0) (-135) VS. JESSICA PENNE (13-8-0) (+105)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423753417063903233?s=20

Andrews: KK is a former prospect that is 2-6-0 in her last eight fights but have been against top notch competition. She also has a win over the current strawweight champion in Rose Namajunas. Penne is good in the clinch and on the ground but can she drag KK to the mat? It will be close.

Andrews Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz via UD 

ALONZO MENIFIELD (10-2-0) (-245) VS. ED HERMAN (26-14-0, 1NC) (+205) 

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423753794114961413?s=20

Andrews: Ed Herman continues to chug along and took advantage of some luck in his last fight. Menifield should have the advantage as the younger fighter but has had some disappointing losses. The veteran experience of Herman versus the physical advantage of Menifield.

Andrews Prediction: Ed Herman via UD 

VINCE MORALES (9-5-0) (-115) VS. DRAKO RODRIGUEZ (7-2-0) (-115)

Andrews: Both guys are struggling as of late. Morales edges this one out.

Andrews Prediction: Vince Morales via UD 

ESPN 2 PRELIMS (8PM ET/5PM PT)

BOBBY GREEN (27-11-1) (+255) VS. RAFAEL FIZIEV (9-1-0) (-315)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423754415094251526?s=20

Andrews: Green will use his usual grit but gets outworked by Fiziev.

Andrews Prediction: Rafael Fiziev via UD 

MAIN CARD (10PM ET/7PM PT)

CASEY KENNEDY (16-3-1) (-120) VS. YONG SADONG (16-5-1, 1NC) (-110)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423754754212118530?s=20

Andrews: Both fighters are coming off a loss. Good up and coming fighters should be a good fight. I think Kennedy edges this one out.

Andrews Prediction: Casey Kennedy via UD 

TECIA TORRES (12-5-0) (-145) VS. ANGELA HILL (13-9-0) (+115)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423755039361970177?s=20

Andrews: The speed of Torres versus the power of Hill. Both are better fighters, but I think Torres edges this one out.

Andrews Prediction: Tecia Torres via UD

VICENTE LUQUE (20-7-1) (-115) VS. MICHAEL CHIESA (18-4-0) (-115)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423755339263057920?s=20

Andrews: I am banking on the power of Luque to overcome the technical skills of Chiesa.

Andrews Prediction: Vicente Luque via TKO

JOSE ALDO (29-7-0) (-115) VS. PEDRO MUNHOZ (19-5-0, 1NC) (-115)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423755779639808005?s=20

Andrews: Aldo is older but can still go. Munhoz is a good fighter but I think the experience of Aldo wins out.

Andrews Prediction: Jose Aldo via UD 

MAIN EVENT

DERRICK LEWIS (25-7-0) (+270) VS. CIRYL GANE (9-0-0) (-345)

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1423757149151322112?s=20

Andrews: Lewis will be unable to use his power and Gane grinds this one out.

Andrews Prediction: Ciryl Gane via UD

MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss: With the edge in experience, plus a win over Ngannou, you might be excused for thinking that Derrick Lewis would be in as the favourite here. It is in fact Ciryl Gane who has that distinction, as he is currently at -340, while Lewis is +265. The fact that Gane is unbeaten and has some big wins over his last few fights probably is the bookies are leaning in this direction, but this is not going to be an easy fight for him

The bookies seem to be of the opinion that this one has a real shot at going the distance, as the OVER/UNDER for this fight is set at 4 ½. When you consider that both of these men have some serious stopping power in their fists, it might not be a bad idea to take a look at the UNDER, which you can get at odds of -160. If you like it to go the distance, then you are looking at +130.

I tend to like to go with experience in big fights, but it is hard to look at Gane and not see a potential champion. I am on Gane to get the win and the UNDER.

MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss prediction: Ciryl Gane via UD

Enjoy the fights.

@kenaiandrews