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UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal predictions

MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss weighs in.

The time for talk is over at UFC 272 as MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss weighs in with wagering analysis on the main event and odds on the entire card.

Kenai Andrews also checks in. Let’s get right into it.

MyBookie has put forth some interesting prop odds for Covington vs. Masvidal here.

Editor’s Note: Odds are accurate at time of posting and are subject to change. Visit MyBookie for latest information.

UFC 272 FIGHT PASS PRELIMS (6PM ET/3PM PT)

(-195) DUSTIN JACOBY (16-5-1) VS. (+160) MICHEL OLEKSIEJCZUK (16-4-0, 1NC) 

Andrews: Both guys like to stand and that favours Jacoby. Look for Jacoby to use that reach advantage and catch Michel.

Andrews Prediction: Dustin Jacoby via TKO

(-160) DEVONTE SMITH (11-3-0) VS. (+130) L’UDOVIT KLEIN (17-4-0)

Andrews: I smell an upset here. Klein can finish on the feet or the ground and I think he drags Smith to the ground and gets the tap.

Andrews Prediction: L’udovit Klein via submission

(+185) TIM ELLIOTT (17-12-1) VS. (-225) TAGIR ULANBEKOV (14-1-0)

Andrews: This one might not be a barnburner. Umar basically grinds this one out. 

Andrews Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov via UD

(+540) BRIAN KELLEHER (24-12-0) VS. (-840) UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV (13-0-0)

Andrews: If Khabib lets you wear his hat to the weigh-ins, you’d better not let him down. And Umar is on a RNC rampage. He will continue that streak.

Andrews Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via submission

UFC 272 PRELIMS (8PM ET/5PM PT)

(+155) MARYNA MOROZ (10-3-0) VS. (-185) MARIYA AGAPOVA (10-2-0) 

Andrews: Moroz is fighting for a country under siege and that will increase her intensity.  But can she keep the fight standing? Agapova will drag the fight to the ground and get the tap before Moroz can pile up the points.

Andrews Prediction: Mariya Agapova via submission

(+110) NICOLAE NEGUMEREANU (11-1-0) VS. (-140) KENNEDY NZECHUKWU (9-2-0)

Andrews: If Nicolae can drag Kennedy down to the ground, he can win. Have to go with Kennedy on strikes though.

Andrews Prediction: Kennedy Nzechukwu via TKO

(-270) #3 MARINA RODRIGUEZ (15-1-2) VS. (+210) #4 YAN XIAONAN (13-2-0, 1NC)

Andrews: It’s been fun watching the progress of Yan. Her striking is good, but Rodriguez is better.

Andrews Prediction: Marina Rodriguez via UD

(-150) JALIN TURNER (11-5-0) VS. (+120) JAMIE MULLARKEY (14-4-0)

Andrews: Turner comes up roses with strikes to stop this one.

Andrews Prediction: Jalin Turner via TKO

MAIN CARD (10PM ET/7PM PT)

(-190) SERGEY SPIVAK (13-3-0) VS. (+155) GREG HARDY (7-4-0, 1NC)

Andrews: Hardy is on a slide and I think it continues as the more technical Spivac catches him.

Andrews Prediction: Serghei Spivac

(-350) KEVIN HOLLAND (21-7-0, 1NC) VS. (+275) ALEX OLIVEIRA (22-11-1, 1NC)

Andrews: This is Holland’s welterweight debut. I think he keeps the fight standing long enough to get the decision.

Andrews Prediction: Kevin Holland via UD

(+135) #10 EDSON BARBOZA (22-10-0) VS. (-165) #11 BRYCE MITCHELL (14-0-0)

Andrews: Mitchell drags Barboza to the ground and grinds him out.

Andrews Prediction: Bryce Mitchell via UD

(-170) #6 RAFAEL DOS ANJOS (30-13-0) VS. (+140) RENATO MOICANO (16-4-1)

Andrews: Dos Anjos uses his wrestling and striking to keep Moicano at bay for most of the fight.

Andrews Prediction: Rafael dos Anjos via UD

MAIN EVENT

(-330) #1 COLBY COVINGTON (16-3-0) VS. (+255) #6 JORGE MASVIDAL (35-15-0)

Andrews: Masvidal needs to use that takedown defence and put something in Colby’s face. But Covington eventually gets the takedown and goes to work.

Andrews Prediction: Colby Covington via UD

Strauss: Covington has lost just three times, and two of those losses were welterweight champion, Kamarau Usman. His fights were competitive and is a big reason why Covington is favoured at -330.

Covington is 16-3-0, including 8-2 over his last 10 fights. He’s had impressive victories over some big names including Robbie Lawler, Tyron Woodley, and Rafael dos Anjos. The 34-year old loves pushing the pace and is a high-volume striker who rarely runs out of gas.

Covington has superb control skills on the mat, and against the cage and averages just over four takedowns per 15 minutes, ranking him 10th all-time in the octagon.

Despite being an underdog, Jorge Masvidal still has a puncher’s chance with the power he possesses. 16 of his 35 wins have come by knockout and if he can find that one punch Saturday, he could make it 17. The 37-year old is one of the cleanest strikers in the division and also is dangerous with his knees and elbow in a clinch. Masvidal has been able to avoid 65% of strikes thrown his way, so if he can keep this fight upright, Covington could be in trouble. But Masvidal has lost four of his last seven and the matchup isn’t favourable.

Masvidal is generally good with takedown defence, but he’s struggled with high-end wrestlers, including in his losses to Usman.

With all the bad blood, you can be sure we see a rapid start to the fight. Covington will likely look for early takedowns to gain control while Masvidal would rather keep this fight standing, and use his striking. He has high fighting IQ in the cage and could pay out if he can land that one devastating blow. Backing Masvidal to win by TKO is listed at an intriguing +375 as many pundits feel it’s the only way he’d get the victory.

Covington should have success on the ground and will bring that early pace. His plan will be to grind Masvidal down. Covington has the control skills which leads to winning rounds and the longer this fight goes, the more likely Covington will wear down Masvidal. While he is a huge moneyline favourite, there is value on a Covington win by decision which is listed at -110.

There you have it. Enjoy the fights.

@kenaiandrews 

KenaiAndrews
KenaiAndrewshttps://www.mmacrossfire.com
Kenai is a former Postmedia Network online news and sports editor. He is the Editor-in-Chief for MMA Crossfire.

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